By Tirthankar Mukherjee
Some four years ago, President Elbegdorj visited India, a country that does not make too many blips on the Mongolian political/economic radar. Some eyebrows somewhere must have been raised at his choice of that country for his first foreign trip as President, and the President’s Office – or some other related authority – soon issued a clarification of the media announcement – arguably not just tactless, but also insensitive and maybe even offensive to the host country – that it was not a personal choice, or a choice of any significance; the present president was being forced to go through with plans arranged by his predecessor.
There was no such speculation or denial when Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe visited Mongolia last month. It had a focus, clearly articulated, with The Asahi Shimbun saying, “Abe chose Mongolia over other potential nations to visit such as Malaysia and Micronesia, although diplomats were concerned that visiting a nation neighbouring China would be too ‘provocative’.” Other Japanese newspapers reported Abe decided on the visit after Yasuhisa Shiozaki, Chief Cabinet Secretary during Abe’s first term, had stressed the strategic importance of Mongolia. Shiozaki, now acting/deputy chairman of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party’s Policy Research Council, visited Mongolia in early March carrying a personal letter from Abe to its leaders. After returning to Japan, he met Abe, calling on him to visit the country by pointing it out on a map before him. “Japan should think strategically, and the prime minister himself had better make a visit,” The Yomiuri Shimbun quoted him as saying. “Mongolia is an important country,” Abe apparently replied. “I’ll strongly consider a visit.”
Abe said on his return to Tokyo that Japan “attaches importance to relations with countries which share the same values such as the rule of law and basic human rights”. Abe and Elbegdorj also agreed to launch a trilateral framework consisting of Japan, Mongolia and the United States for policy discussions. Japanese media have been unanimous in seeing the visit as a move by Abe intended to check the growing influence of China in the region. Indeed, The Japan Times has said, “China is nervously watching the deepening of ties between Japan and Mongolia.”
Politics always plays a part in international bilateral relations, but the present visit was certainly more about Mongolia as “a valued energy source” than just “a strategic neighbour”. Abe himself was forthcoming about this, when he underscored the importance of bilateral relations, particularly from the standpoint of guaranteeing Japanese energy security, at a joint news conference with Prime Minister Altankhuyag. “We want to bolster ties with Mongolia with the objective of creating a good makeup of various energy sources,” he said. “Mongolia is an energy giant, and both countries can create a win-win relationship, with Japan’s technological prowess.”
The two leaders pledged to accelerate talks toward the establishment of an economic partnership agreement. Under the “Erch” (a Mongolian word meaning vitality) initiative, Japan will encourage its private sector to invest in the development of the Tavan Tolgoi coal mine as well as rare earths and other minerals. Altankhuyag said that Mongolia will try to ensure a long-term stable supply of coal for Japan. There are too many bridges to cross before these go beyond statements of intent, but it is clear that Japan is serious about exploiting Mongolian natural resources to be able to maintain its technological pre-eminence, now under threat from several directions.
How Japan, a pretty average Asian feudal state until the middle of the 19th century, got to be where it is, is a fascinating study. The journey and the dream began 160 years ago, in 1853, when Commodore Matthew Calbraith Perry steamed into the Tokyo bay with four steamships. The Japanese had never seen a steamship, made of steel, painted black all over, with a funnel belching smoke. The dragons in their lore had come alive. The Japanese decided to take no notice of the foreign devils, but Perry was willing to wait, and wait. After nine months, he left with a treaty which permitted American ships to enter two ports.
Thus began Japan’s discovery of the West. It imported mechanical spinning and weaving machinery, and became a major textile exporter. It learnt to use Western ships and arms, invaded China and created an empire in Mongolia and Korea. By the early 20th century, Japan was the only industrialised country in Asia. That raised its ambition to be an imperial and expansionist power, an adventure that ultimately led to the atomic annihilation of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. The Japanese surrendered, and U.S. forces occupied Japan for seven years.
Japan has never formally admitted to the atrocities it committed during its days of ruthless expansionism, but has abandoned any plans to bring out power from the barrel of a gun, choosing instead a pacific route to supremacy. It rebuilt its industry, concentrating this time on steel, engineering and automobiles. It became better at engineering than the veterans of Europe and the USA, and offered equipment at lower prices. As its exports zoomed, it accumulated payments surpluses, which it invested all over the world.
After a few decades, however, Japan found a better imitator in China than it itself had been of the West. China started making Japanese machinery at much lower cost. Since China did not follow capitalist rules, it was no use asking it to pay royalties. So the Japanese closed down their factories and sent them to China, becoming the gest investors in China. China became the world’s gest manufacturing exporter, and Japanese companies earned good dividends from the business. As long as the Japanese could go on developing new technology, the Chinese continued to value their connection.
Soon the Chinese were tired to be second to the Japanese. It was only a matter of time before they started making up their own technology. Another problem for Japan was that their companies could grow fatter on profits from China, but they could not create jobs for young Japanese at home. Japan has always had very low unemployment, because its business saw it as its duty to give jobs. The Japanese have seen the Chinese beat them in competition in one activity after another. They ask themselves: what will the Japanese of the next generation do to maintain their prosperity?
And they have come up with a very interesting answer: they would like Japan to become the technological capital of the world. The Japanese have been good at technology for a long time: they imitated others up to a point, and then they became good at making up their own as well. But now they do not aim to be the world’s best innovators. They see that as an uncertain game, in which the Chinese now excel, while the Americans continue to have the best universities and research outfits. Instead of trying to beat everyone else and to make Japanese technology the world’s best, the Japanese have decided to invite the world’s best innovators to come and settle down in Japan. They thus hope to make Japan the world’s technology hub.
There is space for eminence in today’s world, but the scope for pre-eminence is shrinking. If Japan wants to reinvent itself and get out of a deflation-ridden and unimaginative economic rut, it needs uninterrupted energy, and this is why Abe came to Mongolia.